Construction to avoid hard-landing recession

Aaron Morby 2 years ago
Share

Leading cost consultant Arcadis is warning that the current market cycle has reached its peak as unprecedented energy price rises make their impact felt.

But the firm predicts the looming slowdown will not be a ‘blow-out’ like the 2008-2012 crash.

The industry instead is likely to experience a prolonged but shallow downturn rather than a hard landing in the face of present economic headwinds as the demand-side proves more resilient than the past.

In its Autumn market and tender forecast, entitled ‘Energy Sapping’, Arcadis warns the overall picture of inflationary pressure shows no signs of easing, with material price increases continuing as the main driver.

While there is evidence of price stability emerging, this is threatened by spiralling energy costs which, even with government support to keep prices at current levels, are likely to impact the costs of basic material production and their availability.

According to Arcadis, this means the high inflation of the first half of 2022 will remain baked-in.

The cost-of living crisis will also sustain upward pressure on labour costs fueling catch-up pay demands in 2023 and beyond.

These strains are starting to show with total construction orders falling by 10.45% in Q2 on the previous three months, the largest quarterly fall since Q4 2020.

Key points


  • Tender price inflation forecast is confirmed at 10% for buildings and 12% for infrastructure this year
  • Next year building tender inflation to drop to 2-3%, infrastructure revised up from previous forecast to 5%, in recognition of high background demand and potentially greater exposure to material cost inflation
  • For 2024-2025, inflation forecasts have been reduced to account for the expected greater levels of competition across all sectors, however prices will remain high despite the weaker outlook for workload

Simon Rawlinson, Head of Strategic Research & Insight at Arcadis, said: “While confidence in the construction market has remained more robust than the consumer market, it’s clear that the current cycle has peaked and we’re entering a period of slowdown.

“However, just how severe the slowdown will be, and whether it will bring down costs, remains uncertain.

“There are certainly signs that commodity prices are falling, but rising energy costs are baked-in, and their full impact yet to be felt.

“Therefore, we expect inflation to continue to be felt throughout the next 12-months and the effects of increased competition to eventually see inflation slow in 2024-25.”

Latest news

Keltbray fine increased to £18m after failed bid rigging appeal

Contractor loses penalty discount for settling with competition authorities
1 day ago

Luxury house builder goes under with 70 job losses

Octagon Developments in administration after 40 years in business
2 days ago

Top Ten best read stories of 2024

The biggest headlines of an eventful year. Have a good one and here's to a successful 2025
2 days ago

BAM Nuttall fined £800,000 after concrete skip tragedy

Young labourer killed by falling bale arm
3 days ago

Keltbray infrastructure business reveals new name

AUREOS means "new dawn" after private equity acquisition
2 days ago

Stiffer fines for over-running street works from next Summer

Cash raised from lane rentals to be channeled into pothole repairs
2 days ago

£113m Basildon rental homes scheme seals build finance

Work expected to start early next year on Market Square project
2 days ago

Notting Hill Genesis seeks more tier 1 repairs contractors

London housing trust seeks eight firms for new £1.5bn repairs framework
2 days ago

Reclaimed steel oil rig columns worked into London office revamp

Curo will use reclaimed bricks and steel for Fitzrovia office overhaul
3 days ago

CITB delays levy approval consultation

Levy agreement talks pushed back by ongoing review into effectiveness of training body
3 days ago

Ofwat approves £104bn water industry spending plan

Household water bills to rise by 36% to fund quadrupling of investment
3 days ago

Costain/ Siemens JV clinches HS2 power supply job

£300m deal for HV power supply systems over the 225km route
3 days ago

Demolition team assembles on Multiplex London Wall site

Erith to start work next month at Deutsche Bank's former headquarters
4 days ago

Norwich Council acts to revive £300m Anglia Square scheme

Council uses Homes England funding to buy stalled site with planning for 1,100 homes
3 days ago

Go-ahead for 4,500-home Cambridgeshire new town

Waterbeach new town plan stalled three years ago after an Environment Agency objection
3 days ago

Henry Boot to take total control of Stonebridge Homes

Deal worth at least £30m
3 days ago

HS2 costs could hit £66bn

Government looking for next estimate to be lower
4 days ago

Mace to close construction logistics arm

Specialist business being wound down
4 days ago

National Grid to invest £35bn over next five years

Plan set out for record investment in electricity transmission infrastructure
4 days ago

Profits double at Barhale

Civils specialist sees order book top £1bn
4 days ago

Balfour wins 68km HV underground power cable deal

Main works to start next year on Eastern Green Link 2 job
4 days ago

Stunning site wrap unveiled on Sloane Street

Hoarding creates illusion of fully formed façade on £53m Galliford Try job
4 days ago

Heathrow Airport upgrade spend takes off again

Airport operator will spend £2.3bn over the next two years
4 days ago

Government buys back over 36,000 military homes

Public ownership deal to release wave of upgrade and new build work
5 days ago

Story Contracting staff braced for rail job losses

Work coming through slower than expected from Network Rail
5 days ago

Ballymore submits two plans for 3,700 East London homes

Construction could start in 2025 on Thames Road and Knights Road schemes
5 days ago

Blackpool council steps in on failed developer’s £300m scheme

Blackpool Central site clearance to start in the New Year as hunt starts for new developer
6 days ago

Brookfield submits retro-first London office plan

Milton Gate plan for Square Mile will hike space by nearly 50%
5 days ago

Bowmer + Kirkland gets start date for £100m Siemens site

Construction to begin early next year on Chippenham scheme
6 days ago

Torsion sells under-construction Leeds BTR scheme

Concrete frame due to start soon on 300-apartment complex
6 days ago

Contractor services