Reporting strong results for 2022, the number two ranked house builder said that home completions could fall by as much as a third in 2023.
Taylor Wimpey also confirmed it had started the first round of redundancies in the regional businesses as part of a £20m cost-cutting drive, expected to cost £8m to implement.
Chief executive Jennie Daly said that while there had been some signs of a recent uptick in sales, present rates were running at 0.62 per outlet per week, down from 1.02 a year ago.
She said: “While it is encouraging to see an uptick in sales and ongoing robust customer interest in our homes, our reservation rate is significantly lower than in recent years as affordability concerns weigh, particularly for first time buyers, and we have reflected this in our build programmes for the year.
“Accordingly, assuming prevailing market conditions continue and given a challenging planning backdrop, we currently expect 2023 completions to be in the range of 9,000 to 10,500, broadly equivalent to a net sales rate assumption of 0.5 to 0.7, with completions more weighted to the second half.”
Last year Taylor Wimpey achieved home completions of just over 14,000, slightly down on the previous year.
Pre-tax profit last year jumped 22% to £828m from revenue ahead 3% at £4.4bn. The improvement saw operating margin edge up to 21% from 19% previously.
Daly added: “We anticipate that the planning environment will remain difficult for the foreseeable future with a shortage of resources and delays in both the strategic and development management areas of the planning system.
“Proposed changes to the National Planning Policy Framework announced by the Government in December are likely to lead to a reduced land supply and less home building in future years.
“Our strong landbank and pipeline of sites already in planning is a key competitive advantage in this challenging planning environment.”