I’ll make our betting plan really simple. Spain have the best squad and vital experience of winning tournaments and at 11/4 look a standout punt.
The price has been lengthening on Spain in the wake of Barcelona’s defeat by Chelsea.
Barca didn’t have a plan B to cope with Chelsea’s eleven man defence and the thinking now is that teams can frustrate the Spanish then hit them on the break.
But Spain aren’t Barcelona and the squad members pulled from other teams will have a pivotal influence.
Xavi and Iniesta will weave their patterns in the middle. But if that doesn’t work coach Vicente Del Bosque can call on David Silva, Juan Mata and Xabi Alonso who are all well-drilled in a quicker tempo from their time in the Premiership.
Scoring goals won’t be a problem with Llorente up front who is also our tip for the Golden Boot.
He is a powerful number nine and the Spaniards could shock a few along the way by mixing-up intricate passing with a more direct approach to the target man.
Germany will be a major threat but Mario Gomez looks lightweight at the highest level to me while the Dutch have an inferiority complex when it comes to Spain.
The side I see challenging the hardest are Italy who have been written-off in many quarters.
A solid defence and Pirlo and Cassano having one last hurrah alongside the maverick Balotelli could be a recipe for success and at 14/1 they have decent each-way prospects.
Italy are bizarrely longer odds than England. And here’s a word of advice for those tempted by a patriotic punt. Don’t.
Hodgson seems intent on Carroll leading the line which can only mean one thing – an early exit.
I fear the French will beat us before the traditional draw with Sweden then it’s all on the Ukraine game.
Getting out of the group would be a result for what looks a very mediocre squad and I wouldn’t put anyone off the 7/1 available on Belgium winning at Wembley on Saturday.
Football takes a bit of a backseat this weekend to the Derby where Camelot looks a rock-solid favourite.
But all the best prices have gone and you’d have to be Pegasus to tempt me at odds-on down the Epsom hill.
Main Sequence is my idea of a decent each-way bet at 9/1.
He’s unbeaten in four and on the upgrade and should make the frame and be ready to pounce for a bumper payout if the favourite doesn’t handle the track.
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Running Total for all 2012 bets to a £10 stake: +£144.00
