Construction growth forecast hiked to 4.5% in 2014

Aaron Morby 11 years ago
Share

Construction’s crystalball gazers have ticked up growth forecasts for this year once again as the recovery becomes stronger and broadens.

The Construction Products Association’s latest forecast predicts rapid increases in private house building, together with growth in the infrastructure and commercial sectors.

Together these will drive activity up 4.5% this year and promise another two years of good growth on top .

Next year is expected to be another bumper year with growth reaching 4.8% before a slip to 4.3% in 2016.

Spring2014 forecast

Dr Noble Francis, economics director of the association, said  “One year since the construction recovery began, activity is becoming firmly entrenched.

“The construction industry is now on track to grow 18% by 2017 and contribute an additional £20bn to the UK economy.

“We expect private housing starts to surge 18% in 2014 and 10% next year before falling to 5% in 2016 and 2017.

“It’s important to note that private house building only accounts for 15% of total construction.

“Commercial, the largest sector, is expected to grow each year up to 2017.  The office sector in particular has recently shown growth, though demand is mostly in Central London.  We forecast offices construction to increase 7% in 2014 and 10% in 2015.”

He added that last year’s gains in the infrastructure sector would continue to 2017 when levels are anticipated to be 42% higher than in 2012.

Recently, rail has been the fastest growing infrastructure sector. It now looks forward to a steady £38bn investment programme by Network Rail over the next five years.

Roads work, which slumped by almost half in only two years, is forecast to grow every year to 2017, including 15% in 2014.

Francis said:  “The main risks to our forecasts arise around the issue of energy.

“Construction and manufacturing firms have serious concerns regarding energy security and supply.

“Constant delays to the nuclear programme and uncertainty regarding investment in gas-fired power stations only exacerbate these concerns.”

Other key points in spring forecast

  • Public housing starts are set to rise 8% this year and 5% next as growth in private housing leads to increases in public housing via S106 agreements
  • Commercial office building to increase 7% this year and 10% in 2015
  • Infrastructure work to rise 10.1% in 2014 and 7.2% in 2015
  • Retail output growth of 4.0% is forecast in 2014 and 8.0% in 2015
  • Public sector construction is forecast to marginally rise 0.7% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015 as delayed schools and hospitals projects start on site
  • Energy infrastructure output growth is set to slow from 15% in 2014 to only 5% in 2015.

Latest news

Keltbray fine increased to £18m after failed bid rigging appeal

Contractor loses penalty discount for settling with competition authorities
15 hours ago

Luxury house builder goes under with 70 job losses

Octagon Developments in administration after 40 years in business
1 day ago

Top Ten best read stories of 2024

The biggest headlines of an eventful year. Have a good one and here's to a successful 2025
1 day ago

BAM Nuttall fined £800,000 after concrete skip tragedy

Young labourer killed by falling bale arm
2 days ago

Keltbray infrastructure business reveals new name

AUREOS means "new dawn" after private equity acquisition
1 day ago

Stiffer fines for over-running street works from next Summer

Cash raised from lane rentals to be channeled into pothole repairs
1 day ago

£113m Basildon rental homes scheme seals build finance

Work expected to start early next year on Market Square project
1 day ago

Notting Hill Genesis seeks more tier 1 repairs contractors

London housing trust seeks eight firms for new £1.5bn repairs framework
1 day ago

Reclaimed steel oil rig columns worked into London office revamp

Curo will use reclaimed bricks and steel for Fitzrovia office overhaul
2 days ago

CITB delays levy approval consultation

Levy agreement talks pushed back by ongoing review into effectiveness of training body
2 days ago

Ofwat approves £104bn water industry spending plan

Household water bills to rise by 36% to fund quadrupling of investment
2 days ago

Costain/ Siemens JV clinches HS2 power supply job

£300m deal for HV power supply systems over the 225km route
2 days ago

Demolition team assembles on Multiplex London Wall site

Erith to start work next month at Deutsche Bank's former headquarters
3 days ago

Norwich Council acts to revive £300m Anglia Square scheme

Council uses Homes England funding to buy stalled site with planning for 1,100 homes
2 days ago

Go-ahead for 4,500-home Cambridgeshire new town

Waterbeach new town plan stalled three years ago after an Environment Agency objection
2 days ago

Henry Boot to take total control of Stonebridge Homes

Deal worth at least £30m
2 days ago

HS2 costs could hit £66bn

Government looking for next estimate to be lower
3 days ago

Mace to close construction logistics arm

Specialist business being wound down
3 days ago

National Grid to invest £35bn over next five years

Plan set out for record investment in electricity transmission infrastructure
3 days ago

Profits double at Barhale

Civils specialist sees order book top £1bn
3 days ago

Balfour wins 68km HV underground power cable deal

Main works to start next year on Eastern Green Link 2 job
3 days ago

Stunning site wrap unveiled on Sloane Street

Hoarding creates illusion of fully formed façade on £53m Galliford Try job
3 days ago

Heathrow Airport upgrade spend takes off again

Airport operator will spend £2.3bn over the next two years
3 days ago

Government buys back over 36,000 military homes

Public ownership deal to release wave of upgrade and new build work
4 days ago

Story Contracting staff braced for rail job losses

Work coming through slower than expected from Network Rail
4 days ago

Ballymore submits two plans for 3,700 East London homes

Construction could start in 2025 on Thames Road and Knights Road schemes
4 days ago

Blackpool council steps in on failed developer’s £300m scheme

Blackpool Central site clearance to start in the New Year as hunt starts for new developer
5 days ago

Brookfield submits retro-first London office plan

Milton Gate plan for Square Mile will hike space by nearly 50%
4 days ago

Bowmer + Kirkland gets start date for £100m Siemens site

Construction to begin early next year on Chippenham scheme
5 days ago

Torsion sells under-construction Leeds BTR scheme

Concrete frame due to start soon on 300-apartment complex
5 days ago

Contractor services